BBL|15: The Race for the Top Four - Who Will Make the Finals? (2026)

The BBL|15 season is heating up as the top four teams battle for the championship title. With just a week left in the regular season, the race for a finals berth is anyone's game.

The Hobart Hurricanes, defending champions, have surged to the top of the KFC BBL|15 standings. Seven teams remain in the hunt for a finals spot, with four points separating the top seven teams in the race for a top four position.

While the Sydney Thunder's campaign is still mathematically alive with a 0.1 per cent chance of reaching the top four, they've been all but eliminated after securing just one win from their first seven games.

The Hurricanes, Perth Scorchers, Melbourne Stars, and now Sydney Sixers are jostling for top spot, with Adelaide Strikers, Melbourne Renegades, and Brisbane Heat part of a mid-table log jam.

Here's a breakdown of the run home for each side:

1. Hobart Hurricanes

• The defending champions dropped a game to the Stars early but have been almost flawless since, despite losing star batter Tim David to a season-ending hamstring injury.
• Two more wins should clinch the Hurricanes top spot and two home finals for the second season running.
• They've got a relatively straightforward run home with two games in Hobart without having to face any of the other top three sides.

1. Perth Scorchers

• The Scorchers' final ball loss to the Renegades hurts, as it would have seen Ashton Turner's side go to the top of the standings with three games to play.
• Now they're only two points ahead of the fifth- and sixth-placed Strikers and Renegades, who the Scorchers face in their next two matches.
• Win one or two of those and their final match of the home-and-away season against the Stars at home could determine who gets a double-chance.

1. Melbourne Stars

• Started hot with four straight wins but have dropped their three games since.
• Those early wins have put them in a strong position to play finals again, but Marcus Stoinis' side needs to rediscover that form quickly to arrest their slide.
• Their next two games are against teams below them (Renegades and Strikers), while their final match of the regular season away against the Scorchers could determine who gets the double-chance.

1. Sydney Sixers

• The Sixers have bounced back from a slow start with four wins in their past five games to surge into the top half of the standings with a positive net run-rate.
• They've drawn level on points with the Scorchers and Stars above them and could also do the same to the top-ranked Hurricanes who they face in their next match.
• Moises Henriques' team then finish the home-and-away campaign with games against the last-placed Thunder and Brisbane Heat, with the latter part of the tight mid-table bunch also jostling for fourth spot.

1. Adelaide Strikers

• Wins at home against the Thunder and Heat have kept the Strikers in the race for a top four spot.
• While they have their finals hopes in their own hands, the Strikers face a stern test across their next three games against all top three sides, with two of those away trips to Hobart and Melbourne.
• Win two of their final three and they'll be a strong chance of returning to finals for the first time since BBL|13.

1. Melbourne Renegades

• Two thrilling final-over victories, first against crosstown rivals the Stars and then away at Optus Stadium against the Scorchers, have revived the Renegades finals hopes after three losses in a row.
• The Renegades will be seeking to keep their momentum rolling in the return Melbourne derby at home against the Stars before a trip to Sydney to take on the struggling Thunder.
• Will Sutherland's side close their regular season with tough match-ups against the Scorchers and Strikers who are also vying for finals qualification.

1. Brisbane Heat

• It's been a topsy-turvy season for the Heat so far, who are yet to string two consecutive wins together.
• After chasing down a record 258 to beat the Scorchers in their second game, they then scored 99 runs fewer from their 20 overs in their next game to lose to the last-placed Thunder.
• With three wins from seven games, they're still in with a shot of playing finals as part of a group of teams level on points in fourth place.
• But with a poor net run-rate, the Heat will likely need to win all their remaining games to stay in the race, which includes a tough away trip to Hobart to take on the Hurricanes.

1. Sydney Thunder

• It's been a tough season for Thunder fans, whose hopes of eclipsing their runners-up finish from last season have been all but extinguished.
• They have lost their past four games in a row after also beginning the season with two losses, and while captain David Warner has been in fine touch of late with a career-best 130 followed by 67no, he's had little support.
• Given their poor net run-rate, the Thunder are three wins away from fourth spot and despite it being mathematically possible, it's very unlikely they'll be playing finals.
• They would need to win all their remaining games and hope the four teams above them (Sixers, Strikers, Renegades, and Heat) lose their matches, as well as needing the Strikers-Renegades and Heat-Sixers to end in a no result.