Logan Evans, a pitcher with an intriguing story, is turning two years old in the MLB. His rookie season performance was a rollercoaster, with a significant split in his numbers that has left analysts puzzled. The question on everyone's mind: Which of the two OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging) figures better represents his true talent? The first figure, .529, was the fifth-best in the MLB, while the second, 1.022, was the worst. This .493 difference was the largest split in 2025 and one of the 20 largest in MLB history. But here's the catch: OPS isn't the ideal metric for pitchers, and that's why it's often used for comparison purposes. The next plot reveals a more balanced performance when using FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), showing a less extreme split. Evans performed closer to average on the first time through the order, still ranking as the worst in the MLB on the second. His success on the first turn was due to his outstanding ability to limit quality contact, despite not getting many strikeouts or whiffs. Batters struggled to make solid contact, either rolling over, getting jammed, or popping up. His .289 xwOBAcon on the first turn was the sixth-best in the MLB. However, on the second turn, he was abysmal by every metric. The most likely explanation is that small sample sizes can sometimes produce bizarre splits, and Evans' feat was achieved in just 15 starts. A safe evaluation would consider his overall line: 5.05 FIP, 8% K-BB, 1.44 HR/9, and -0.1 fWAR. This aligns with the performance of a bottom 20% starting pitcher, which is expected from a seventh-string, 12th-round pick with poor stuff. Despite this, it's challenging to ignore the fact that Evans was a good or even great pitcher for nine batters a night. The split is intriguing because it hints at something less measurable and more fundamental. We know that pitching is about more than just 'stuff,' and as batters gain an advantage from seeing a pitcher more, a pitcher's performance in the early or late parts of an outing could reveal those less measurable abilities. For pitchers at the extremes, like Evans, this might indicate something about the nature of their abilities. What can we learn about pitching by studying Logan Evans? What might we learn about humanity? Evans' rookie season showcased a deep, six-pitch repertoire, with a focus on quantity over speed and spin. He could make the ball go in every conceivable direction at release, keeping batters guessing. This approach worked on the first turn, with effective pitches against both handedness. However, once the lineup turned over, all his pitches became measurably worse. The reason for this decline is unclear, but it might be linked to movement spread or the idea that having multiple pitches moving in all directions can keep hitters off balance. Perhaps this is enough to get through a lineup once, but raw stuff is necessary from then on. Or maybe Evans struggled to disguise his pitches, as Timothy Jackson suggested. Evans enters Spring Training 2026 as depth, with his exact position in the starting rotation uncertain. The Mariners, aware of his splits and arsenal, have a plan, and it's fascinating to see what changes he might make. Will he add, remove, or overhaul a pitch? Will he shift his aim or adjust his sequencing? This challenge is worth following for Evans' career and the Mariners' success, offering a glimpse into the minds of sharp pitching thinkers. It's a testament to the importance of the Pitching Bureaucracy and how organization reputations are earned.
